How to understand customers when everything keeps changing
Here's what happens when uncertainty hits: teams panic, freeze research budgets, and make critical decisions based on outdated assumptions. Meanwhile, customer behavior shifts faster than anyone predicted.
The irony? Times of uncertainty are exactly when research matters most.
My first job out of college was in Emergency Management for the U.S. Treasury Department, working on something called "Continuity of Operations Planning." The work taught me three crucial lessons that apply directly to research strategy:
You can't control the cause of uncertainty... but you can control your response. And a good response means having a good plan.
Whether you're navigating economic volatility, technological disruption, cultural shifts, or industry transformation, the principle remains the same: when everything changes, understanding your customers becomes your competitive advantage.
Why Traditional Research Fails During Uncertainty
Most research approaches assume stability. They're designed for incremental optimization, not fundamental shifts in behavior. When uncertainty hits, these approaches become dangerous:
Survey data reflects what people thought last quarter, not how they're adapting now.
Focus groups capture stated preferences, not actual behavior under new constraints.
Historical analytics show past patterns, not emerging realities.
The result? Organizations make million-dollar bets based on insights that are already obsolete.
The New Rules for Research During Uncertainty
When customer behavior shifts rapidly, you need research approaches designed for change, not stability:
1. Speed Over Perfection
Traditional research cycles (plan for months, field for weeks, analyze for months) are too slow for uncertain times. You need insights that help you adapt in real-time.
The shift: Move from comprehensive studies to rapid learning cycles. Better to have directionally correct insights this week than perfect insights next quarter.
2. Behavior Over Stated Intent
What people say they'll do and what they actually do diverge even more during uncertainty. Focus on observing actual behavior, not predicted behavior.
The approach: Track behavioral signals – what they're buying, clicking, searching, abandoning. Supplement with qualitative research that explores why, not whether.
3. Emerging Patterns Over Historical Trends
Your five-year customer data might be irrelevant if the last six months changed everything. Look for new patterns, not variations on old ones.
The mindset: Treat uncertainty as an opportunity to discover new customer truths, not just validate existing ones.
Research Methods That Actually Work During Uncertainty
Digital Ethnography and In-Situ Observation
Watch how people actually behave in their real environments. What are they doing differently? What new workarounds have they created?
Why it works: Captures adaptation in real-time, reveals unmet needs that surveys miss.
Rapid Pulse Research
Short, frequent check-ins with key customer segments. Track shifting attitudes, behaviors, and priorities on a weekly or monthly basis.
The power: Identifies inflection points before they become obvious to everyone else.
Jobs-to-be-Done During Crisis
When circumstances change, the jobs customers hire products to do often change too. What new jobs have emerged? What old jobs have become irrelevant?
The insight: Reveals opportunity spaces that didn't exist before uncertainty hit.
Scenario-Based Research
Instead of asking what customers will do, explore how they'd respond to different possible futures. Test assumptions about various scenarios.
The advantage: Builds adaptive strategies rather than static plans.
Building Research Operations for Uncertainty
Create Always-On Listening Systems
Set up continuous feedback loops with key customer segments. Make research a constant conversation, not a periodic project.
Invest in Mixed Methods
Combine behavioral data, attitudinal research, and observational insights. No single method captures the full picture during rapid change.
Build Internal Research Capability
External partners are valuable, but internal teams can pivot faster when circumstances change. Invest in tools and training that make your team more self-sufficient.
Design for Speed and Flexibility
Create research frameworks that can be deployed quickly. Standardize processes so you can move from question to insight in days, not months.
The Strategic Advantage of Uncertainty Research
Here's what most organizations miss: uncertainty isn't just a threat to manage – it's an opportunity to understand customers more deeply than your competitors.
While others freeze or rely on assumptions, you can:
Discover new customer needs before competitors recognize they exist
Identify which changes are temporary versus permanent shifts
Build products and experiences for emerging realities, not past preferences
Make confident decisions based on current customer truth, not historical data
The Bottom Line: Research as Navigation, Not Prediction
The goal isn't to predict the future – it's to understand how customers are adapting to uncertainty so you can adapt with them.
Traditional research tries to eliminate uncertainty through perfect data. Strategic research embraces uncertainty as a source of competitive advantage.
The question isn't whether to do research during uncertain times. The question is whether you're doing research designed for uncertainty – or still using tools built for stability.
When everything is changing, understanding your customers isn't just nice to have. It's how you navigate toward opportunity while others are paralyzed by change.